As an industry, we are all aware that the Central Government published the highly anticipated revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) at the end of last year; coincidentally around the same time that Glinda the Good Witch burst onto the silver screen heralding the virtues of being popular…
As transport planning professionals, we have been diligently studying Chapter 9 since December 12th and, like everyone else, I have noticed a significant shift in the policy’s focus. It is no longer just about promoting sustainable transport; instead, there is a clear emphasis on shaping the future of mobility through a more strategic “vision-led approach.”
So effective transport planning now encourages us to move beyond the traditional “predict and provide” model and consider how various transport scenarios might unfold in the future.
Another notable change is the inclusion of “scenario testing” in the (transport) planning process, Chapter 9 emphasises the importance of ensuring that transport strategies are adaptable, innovative, and aligned with longer-term sustainability goals.
I firmly believe that both the introduction of the “vision-led approach” and “scenario testing” represent powerful tools for transport assessment. They will enable transport planners, developers, and decision-makers to anticipate transportation challenges, seize opportunities, and create resilient, future-proof transport systems.
However, there are a few minor nuances in the guidance in relation to these new elements of the NPPF that could potentially lead to ambiguity and misinterpretation.
A Vision?
The revised NPPF shifts the focus from individual transport solutions to a strategic, long-term vision for sustainable mobility. Chapter 9 encourages transport planners, developers, and local authorities to envision places that:
- Reduce the reliance on cars through intelligent land use planning.
- Integrate transport into new developments, making sustainable travel the most convenient option.
- Embrace innovative solutions like mobility hubs, electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure, and smart transport technology.
A “vision-led” approach could lead to transportation networks that evolve to support broader goals, such as climate resilience, economic growth, and improved quality of life.
On the surface, the vision seems clear:
“we are now designing places for people, not just vehicles!”
However, if you delve into Annex 2: Glossary, you’ll find that the clear definition of “vision-led approach” is as follows:
“An approach to transport planning based on setting outcomes for a development based on achieving well-designed, sustainable, and popular places, and providing the transport solutions to deliver those outcomes…”
This is where the revised policy may face some challenges: the term “well-designed” is subjective and context-dependent, influenced by cultural values, user needs, and evolving trends.
A truly “sustainable” transport strategy focuses on connecting people to opportunities rather than just moving cars from one place to another. It involves:
- Prioritising walking, cycling, and public transport over private car use.
- Creating connected neighbourhoods where homes, jobs, and amenities are easily accessible.
- Designing high-quality, safe, and accessible public spaces that encourage social interaction.
This human-centric approach isn’t novel and doesn’t merely enhance mobility; it shapes the identity of places, creating communities that are not only well-connected but also more enjoyable to live and work in; this is something we are very familiar with and as professionals can be seen as the utopia of designing place.
However, I am uncertain how a place can be guaranteed to be “popular” and for this to be a material planning consideration for Officers and/or Planning Committee Members when determining the merits of a planning application . A place becomes popular when it attracts a high number of residents, employees, and visitors due to its appeal and is largely based on a positive reputation. It then becomes a destination for people to gather, work, and enjoy leisure activities.
Since the introduction of the NPPF in 2012 (incidentally, the year of mode’s inception!), we have been engaged in debates and testing the definition of “severe impact.” at Public Inquiry up and down the UK. This remains the “key test” for transport carried through from previous versions.
My concern is that without a clearer definition and guidance on what “vision-led” means (and perhaps with some minor rewording in the Glossary), we could find ourselves arguing about whose “vision” holds precedence!
Who’s Scenarios?
Turning to integrating scenario testing into the (transport) planning process, Chapter 9 urges transportation professionals to explore mobility strategies that are adaptable, innovative, and aligned with long-term sustainability objectives.
Scenario testing can aid decision-makers in exploring various possibilities, challenging assumptions, and evaluating the effects of different transport policies and infrastructure choices. By considering a range of future scenarios, we can steer clear of reactive planning and instead construct transport networks that:
Adapt to emerging technologies, such as autonomous vehicles and smart mobility solutions
- Respond to climate change challenges, including extreme weather conditions and decarbonization targets
- Support diverse growth patterns, ranging from urban expansion to rural regeneration and compact city models
- Enhance resilience, ensuring transport systems remain robust during crises like pandemics or energy shortages
A “vision-led approach” combined with “scenario testing” empowers us to plan not only for the present but also for the future.
“Scenario testing” allows planners to assess how various transport strategies would perform under diverse potential futures. Below are three key scenarios that reflect potential transport and emerging planning trends (or should that be “vision”?):
Scenario 1: Net Zero Acceleration
Vision: A society that swiftly embraces sustainable travel, where walking, cycling, and public transport dominate, and private car usage declines.
Key features:
- Cities and towns prioritise active travel and 15-minute neighbourhoods, reducing the need for long commutes.
- Mass expansion of electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure and public transport electrification.
- Widespread adoption of low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTN) and car-free developments.
- Public-private investment in green transport innovations, such as hydrogen-powered buses and shared mobility hubs.
Impact:
- Significant reductions in carbon emissions and air pollution.
- Improved public health through active travel.
- A robust local economy, as people spend more within their communities rather than commuting long distances.
This scenario aligns with the UK’s climate targets and positions transport as a leader in achieving net zero.
Scenario 2: Digital Mobility Revolution
Vision: A world where digital technology revolutionises transport, transforming it into a smarter, more efficient, and less reliant on private car ownership.
Key features:
- The growth of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) platforms, which seamlessly integrate various transportation modes such as buses, trains, bike-sharing, and ride-hailing.
- The expansion of autonomous vehicle (AV) networks, which aim to reduce congestion and enhance accessibility.
- The widespread adoption of real-time data, which optimises routes and minimises inefficiencies in transport planning.
- The implementation of dynamic road pricing and congestion management systems, which encourage more sustainable transport choices.
Impact:
- A shift from car ownership to access, which reduces congestion and alleviates parking pressures.
- The provision of more personalised and efficient public transport options.
- Improved rural connectivity, as on-demand services replace fixed bus routes.
This scenario envisions a transport system that is highly responsive, reducing waste and inefficiency while enhancing accessibility.
Scenario 3: Business-as-Usual Challenge
Vision: Transport planning fails to keep pace with societal changes, resulting in rising congestion, poor air quality, and increasing transport inequality.
Key features:
- High car dependency due to insufficient investment in active and public transport.
- Insufficient EV charging infrastructure, hindering the transition away from petrol and diesel vehicles.
- Urban sprawl, resulting in longer and more expensive commutes.
- Fragmented transport funding, preventing the development of integrated and long-term solutions.
Impact:
- Rising carbon emissions, making it harder to meet climate targets
- Widening inequality, as those without access to private vehicles face increasing isolation
- Greater economic inefficiencies due to congestion and poor connectivity
…and here is where we get to my further concern with the Policy, such a scenario highlights the risks of inaction and the importance of using scenario testing to drive proactive decision-making rather than falling back to more familiar methodologies.
NPPF, Paragraph 116 states:
“Development should only be prevented or refused on highways grounds if there would be an unacceptable impact on highway safety or the residual cumulative impact would be severe, taking into account all reasonable future scenarios.”
This highlights the potential for less pragmatic Highways Authorities, who may be naturally apprehensive about the success of forward-thinking “visions.” might revert to the notion that the most likely scenario is that no or limited mode shift occurs. In such cases, they might insist on always having a “scenario test” that relies on the more traditional “predict and provide” scenario. This approach would be disappointing and hinder the development of more sustainable transport innovation.
The planning process…
So, I believe that “scenario testing” is not about predicting the future or incrementally ratcheting modal shift by a mere one percent; Instead, it will need to focus on preparing for a wide range of more precise and innovative possibilities.
By integrating this approach now set out in Chapter 9 of the NPPF, transport planners and policymakers can achieve several key objectives:
- Identify long-term risks and opportunities, ensuring that transport investments remain relevant and effective.
- Develop adaptable policies that can work across various growth and technological scenarios.
- Foster innovation by allowing for trials of new transport solutions before their full-scale implementation.
- Build public trust by demonstrating how different choices will impact local communities and economies.
By combining “vision-led” transport planning with robust “scenario testing,” the UK can begin to create transport systems that are not only efficient and sustainable in the present but also resilient and adaptable for generations to come.
A Smarter, More Resilient Approach?
Despite my slightly cautious review of Chapter 9 of the NPPF, I firmly believe that it encourages a bold and forward-thinking approach to sustainable transport and mobility. In fact, mode transport planning has already embraced and championed this approach in nationally recognised new settlements like Worcestershire Parkway and the expansion of Heyford Park in Oxfordshire over the past three to four years.
However, to truly future proof our mobility networks, we must set a clear “vision” and embrace bold and innovative scenario testing as a critical decision-making tool. By planning for multiple futures, whether it’s a net zero transition, a digital mobility revolution, or yet-to-be-identified emerging societal challenges, we can begin to create resilient, people-centric, and sustainable transport networks that support economic growth, social inclusion, and reduce our environmental impacts
The current challenge is to ensure that every transportation decision is guided by a clear “vision” and tested against various possible future “scenarios”. In doing so, we can shape new developments that are not merely prepared for change but actively “drive” towards creating a better sense of place.
By integrating sustainable mobility into the core of urban and rural planning, we can create well-connected, forward-thinking communities that thrive economically, socially, and environmentally.
The message is clear: transportation should be viewed as an opportunity to design better places, not just a challenge to manage. With bold, ambitious, and future-focused strategies, we can strive to build new developments that empower people’s choices for healthier lifestyles, strengthen communities, and support a cleaner, greener future for all.
Only then can these new places be evaluated based on their popularity!